The MASSIVE, Unknown Threat of Normalcy Bias in Business

The MASSIVE, Unknown Threat of Normalcy Bias in Business

What is Normalcy Bias?

Normalcy Bias is a cognitive bias that refers to the tendency of people to underestimate or ignore potential risks and dangers during times of crisis or disaster, and instead, believe that things will continue to function as they usually do. It can also be described as an unwillingness to accept the reality of a situation that deviates from what is perceived as normal.

When individuals experience a sudden and unexpected event, such as natural disasters, accidents, or emergencies, they may struggle to grasp the severity of the situation and fail to take appropriate actions. This is because the human brain often relies on past experiences and familiar patterns to make sense of new information. In the case of normalcy bias, people may subconsciously try to fit the current situation into their preconceived notions of how things should be, rather than confronting the actual challenges at hand.

This bias can have detrimental effects, as individuals may delay or avoid taking necessary precautions, evacuate late during disasters, or fail to prepare adequately for potential threats. It is especially important for business owners, emergency responders, public officials, and individuals to be aware of the normalcy bias to ensure that they respond effectively to crises and make informed decisions to protect themselves and others.

By acknowledging the existence of normalcy bias and actively working to overcome it, people can become better prepared and equipped to handle unexpected and dangerous situations. This includes being vigilant, staying informed, and having contingency plans in place for various scenarios.


Here are some common examples and impacts of normalcy bias:

Hurricane Ignorance: Despite receiving warnings of an approaching hurricane, some individuals may choose to stay in their homes, assuming hat the storm won't be as severe as predicted or that their area is immune to significant damage. They underestimate the potential impact of the hurricane and may not take necessary precautions, leading to increased risk and harm.

Fire Ignorance: In the face of a spreading wildfire, people might hesitate to evacuate promptly, believing that the fire will be contained quickly or that it won't reach their location. This normalcy bias can lead to individuals being trapped in dangerous situations, hindering emergency responders' efforts, and increasing the risk of injuries or fatalities.

Building Collapse: When a building shows signs of structural damage, occupants may choose to remain inside, assuming that the structure is stable or that the situation will improve. This cognitive bias can prevent them from evacuating in time, putting their lives at risk in the event of a collapse.

Industrial Accidents: In cases of chemical spills or industrial accidents, nearby residents might downplay the severity of the situation, thinking that authorities have the situation under control or that he substances involved are not that harmful. This can lead to delayed evacuation or failure to take protective measures, resulting in health issues exposure to hazardous materials.

Tsunami Disregard: In coastal regions, some individuals may ignore tsunami warnings or delay seeking higher ground when they receive alerts, assuming that the previous waves were not significant or that the warning is a false alarm. This can lead to tragic consequences when a large tsunami wave strikes the area.

Pandemic Denial: During a pandemic, some people might underestimate the risk of infection or the severity of the disease, assuming that it won't affect them or that the situation will quickly return to normal. This normalcy bias can lead to a failure to follow public health guidelines and precautions, exacerbating the spread of the virus.

How to combat normalcy bias

I have three pieces of advice for business owners to avoid making a bad situation worse by being trapped in normalcy bias:

1.      Train for the unexpected: Provide regular training and education to employees about the concept of normalcy bias, its potential impact on decision-making during crises, and how to recognize and overcome it. Raising awareness of this cognitive bias can help employees be more vigilant and responsive to potential risks.

2.      Try many things, keep what works, stop what doesn’t: This is one of my key philosophies of business and life in general. If something isn’t working, don’t be afraid to put a stop to it and try something else OR double down on what is working. Frequent change at a company can help keep people on their toes and expect the unexpected.

3.      Risk Assessment and Contingency Planning: Conduct thorough risk assessments and develop comprehensive contingency plans or various potential scenarios. Encourage employees to actively participate in the planning process and consider various risk factors to ensure they are well-prepared for unexpected events.

4.      Red Teaming: Use red teaming exercises or simulations to challenge prevailing assumptions and expose blind spots in the company's decision-making processes. By having a group of individuals play the role of "adversaries," the organization can identify areas where normalcy bias might be influencing decisions.

5.      Encourage Open Communication: Foster a culture where employees feel comfortable raising concerns and sharing dissenting opinions. Encouraging open communication can help challenge groupthink and ensure that potential risks are acknowledged and addressed.

6.      External Expertise: Seek input from external experts or consultants like Tempest Risk Management who can provide unbiased perspectives and assessments of the business's vulnerabilities and preparedness. This outside perspective can help counter internal biases.

7.      Review Past Incidents: Analyze past incidents or near-miss events to identify instances where normalcy bias may have played a role in decision-making. Use these cases as learning opportunities to improve future responses.

8.      Implement Early Warning Systems: Deploy early warning systems that can alert the organization to potential risks or emerging crises. These systems can help counteract normalcy bias by providing timely and objective information to inform decision-making.

9.      Stress Test Plans: Regularly stress test contingency plans and response procedures through tabletop exercises or drills. These simulations can reveal weaknesses in the organization's response and preparedness, helping to improve overall resilience.

10.  Foster a Culture of Adaptability: Encourage adaptability and flexibility within the organization. Emphasize the importance of adjusting strategies and responses based on changing circumstances, rather than sticking rigidly to familiar routines.

11.  Set Clear Roles and Responsibilities: Establish clear roles and responsibilities during crises to avoid confusion and delays in decision-making. Clearly defined roles can help ensure that the right people are empowered to make critical decisions without falling victim to ormalcy bias.

By adopting these strategies, businesses can enhance their ability to recognize and counter normalcy bias, making them better equipped to respond effectively to crises and safeguard the well-being of their employees, customers, and stakeholders.

Andy Ziegler

President/Founder of Tempest Risk Management

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